Forex na co zwracac uwage

Aug 07,  · ciag dalszy: Suppose, instead, that the trade deficit is to halve, in real terms, over five years. Then exports must grow at 10 per cent a year in real terms.

We both know that the penis belongs to the most important regions of a individual's body which would you opt to lose: Dorpacie i baudolino opowiadal mu koniec koncow nie wrozcie winowajcow z dyplomami amerykanskiego. Jakby swiecily z jakas nadzieja w , ktorych on sie przyzwoiciej niz mezczyzn niz kobiet.

flatex CFD Demokonto → risikolos Erfahrungen sammeln

Bezprzykladne co przynalezy zdzialac, owo zdzialac rejestracji na stronie internetowej jednostek, sposrod jakiej propozycji potrzebujemy wykorzystac. Od momentu zbadania wniosku, szmalec na nasze konto dojda w kilkanascie minut.

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Kiedy inwestowac a kiedy nie Omowimy kalendarz ekonomiczny To wszystko w 5 godzin on line Kurs jest wprowadzajacy wiec przekaze indykatory ustawienia Omowimy pozniej poszukamy wejsc.

Kurs do przodu nie do tylu - nie analizuje wykresow wstecz Cena kursu zl czas godzin Kurs jest podstawowy - mozna go rozszerzac o poszczegolne pakiety dzienne. Zakladam ze po wprowadzeniu kazdy moze sam wyszukac wiedze na temat tego co jest jemu potrzebne do tradingu. Kolejne kursy indywidualne to kwestia potrzeb. Konto Facebook, ponad znajomych, realne. Jakie kursy dla firmy? The current account deficit in the first three-quarters of was running at an annualised rate of Dollars bn Pounds bn.

If one ignores changes in valuations, this means the net international position must have been roughly minus Dollars 2,bn at the end of last year. Thus, neither the current account deficit nor, inevitably, the stock of net liabilities to the rest of the world improved, even during a slowdown.

The US, it is hoped, is now on its way to a demand-led recovery. The current account deficit is therefore likely to widen further. Goldman Sachs forecasts a rise in the US current account deficit from about Dollars bn last year 4. Five years from now the stock of net liabilities if one ignores changes in valuations would be Dollars 5,bn. Even that is not the end of the story. The difficulty is knowing when and how it will end. But the longer the process continues, the more painful that ending is likely to be.

In considering how it might finish, one must ask who is financing the deficit. The answer, strangely, is that we do not really know. The largest offsetting surplus was Japan's Dollars 91bn. Newly industrialised Asian economies added Dollars 44bn, Asian developing countries Dollars 24bn and oil exporters Dollars 51bn. The European Union contributed nothing, with a surplus of only Dollars 1bn.

But the world as a whole ran a notional current account surplus with itself of Dollars bn. About this black hole little can be said, except that it must largely consist of unrecorded exports and so capital flight from developing countries. Japan's surplus is structural.

Since their financial crisis, other Asian economies have also found it difficult to absorb their high savings. Thus there are sizeable surplus savings looking for a safe home. But that surplus is considerably smaller than the US deficits. How stable the black hole in the global balance of payments is must be unknowable. If we do not know how exactly the US deficits are being financed, we do know this is happening with ease.

As J P Morgan Chase notes, the real trade-weighted dollar has risen by 6. It is almost as high today as it was in the mids. Yet it is hard to believe this financing will continue with such ease indefinitely. Many analysts downplay such worries. They argue that the rest of the world has to put its surplus savings somewhere; that the US is protected by its ability to borrow in its own currency and to attract inward direct investment and equity purchases; and that in , for example, net payments of investment income to foreigners were a mere Dollars 9.

Yet the costs of service will rise, along with the net liabilities. Moreover, the sum of net equity inflow and net inward foreign direct investment fell from Dollars bn in to an annualised rate of only Dollars 2. This shift was not surprising, given changes in equity valuations and corporate profitability. But it was also a way of hedging against valuation risks. What makes the claims relatively safe for the US also makes them risky for foreign investors. As US assets become a bigger component of their wealth, they must become nervous about the currency and valuation risks.

The dollar is vulnerable to such changes in sentiment. At present, exports of goods and services are about three-quarters of imports. The growth of imports, other things being equal, is about 1. If GDP grows at 3. If the trade deficit is to remain constant, exports must grow at 8 per cent.

Suppose, instead, that the trade deficit is to halve, in real terms, over five years. Then exports must grow at 10 per cent a year in real terms. If the world economy continues to grow as fast as it di.

If the world economy continues to grow as fast as it did over the past two decades, US exports would grow at about 3. The dollar would need to depreciate enough to turn 3. This would demand a big and continuing decline. As soon as investors become concerned, they will think about the depreciation ahead. That could create a downward spiral, as they rush for the door and the value of assets they own in the US, in their own currencies, declines. Even the Federal Reserve might find its ultra-easy monetary policy difficult to sustain and that, in turn, would affect domestic confidence.

The strong dollar has made life for the Federal Reserve very easy. Maybe this happy state of affairs will continue for years. But the elastic is not infinitely stretchable. It will snap back in the end. Na tym forum zwracalismy na makroproblemy USA wielokrotnie. Patrz watek Argentyna w USA. Czy FT tez pisze bzdury? Nie takie jak ty, ale pisze.

Jak zwykle FT pisze przepowiednie fantastyczne a realia sa zupelnie inne: To chyba o piwo chodzilo? MW -- Stocks rallied heartily in a widespread move higher Friday as a key index showed that the long-suffering manufacturing sector expanded in February for the first time in 19 months. The Institute of Supply Management Index, in fact, jumped to A reading above the percent mark suggests that the factory sector is expanding.

Check the full story. The ISM's sub-components also offered an incredibly encouraging outlook. The forward-looking new orders index, for example, surged to The ISM reading corresponds to economic growth of about 4. Thursday's huge upward revision to fourth-quarter gross domestic product certainly points to a good performance in the coming months.

The tech sector's across-the-board rally underpinned both the Dow and the Nasdaq, with the semiconductor sector stealing the spotlight hands down. Chip equipment stocks were particularly bubbly after Novellus Systems upped its quarterly outlook. Hardware and Internet stocks also tallied healthy gains while the broader market drew buyers in the airline, retail and defense segments while sellers were in pole position in the biotech and gold areas.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average spiked points, or 1. Only two components wandered in the minus column: The Nasdaq Composite rallied 34 points, or 2 percent, to 1, and the Nasdaq Index added a lofty 39 points, or 2. Market breadth was solid, with advancers taking out decliners by 17 to 10 on the NYSE and by 16 to 12 on the Nasdaq. And equity funds that invest primarily in U. Barrage of data Market watchers got additional news validating the recovery theory. January personal income and spending both rose 0.

Further, January construction spending jumped 1. Friday's data capped a week of encouraging news about the economy.

Investors were especially cheered by a report Friday showing that the beleaguered manufacturing sector -- which has been contracting for 18 consecutive months -- may finally be strengthening.

The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index ballooned to A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector. The Commerce Department reported that personal income rose by 0. Economists had forecast that personal income would grow by 0. Wall Street remains concerned that any economic upturn could lose its vigor as the year progresses, said Mr. The fear is that certain external factors -- such as the unusually balmy winter or the dramatic depletion of corporate inventories -- are providing a one-time boost that won't be sustained, he said.

Consumers also appear wary about the state of the economy, according to a survey that suggests they grew more pessimistic in February. The latest installment of the University of Michigan 's closely watched consumer survey reported that the index of consumer sentiment declined to The reading was in line with analysts' expectations but slightly below the previously reported mid-February figure of Technology stocks helped lead the gains Friday, energized by a positive outlook from chip maker Novellus Systems.

The company saw its shares jump 9. The news lifted the entire chip sector, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surging 7. But Friday's gains extended well beyond the tech sector, with all but two of the Dow industrials' 30 components moving higher. Meanwhile, Walt Disney stock added 1. Disney hopes the move will help it conquer the malaise that has dogged Hollywood studio stores.

On the Big Board, where million shares traded, 1, stocks rose and 1, fell. On the Nasdaq, 1. Widze, Mily, ze dostajesz wypiekow na twarzy gdy gielda idzie troche do gory. W koncu cos sie musi dziac, bo inaczej ci faceci tam na sol nie zarobia.

Juz przez 2 lata temu DOW osiagal Czy to jednak jest prawdziwy zwrot czy tylko pobozne zyczenie, desperacja zniecierpliwionych inwestorow zobaczymy dopiero za kilka miesiacach. Poza tym gielda tylko w ograniczonym stopniu odzwierciedla stan gospodarki.

Jest to do pewnego stopnia loteria pieniezna. Ile razy widze te gwaltowne skoki na gieldzie i histeryczna reakcje podnieconego tlumu przypomina mi sie stara czeska komedia z lat tych pt. Film ten powstal w czasie wielkiej rywalizacji Wschodu i Zachodu i byl farsa na pionierska Ameryke. Nie byl to typowy "czeski film". W jednej ze scen pechowy poszukiwacz zlota, wyglodnialy, brudny wloczega o imieniu bodajze Joe, z zazdroscia zaglada do saloonu, gdzie szczesliwcy jedza, pija i sie zabawiaja.

Nagle otwiera on drzwi i krzyczy: To co sie potem stalo to mozna sobie wyobrazic. Wszyscy wybiegli i w minute caly lokal zostal pusty. Nawet facet, ktory wlasnie bral kapiel pobiegl za nimi. Przez nastepna godzine Joe niezle sobie podjadl, popil, wzial kapiel i juz wygodnie wypoczywal, gdy powrocil pierwszy z gosci z odkrywczym stwierdzeniem: Niestety mentalnosc Amerykanow niewiele sie zmienila od tamtych czasow.

Ostatnio wydaje sie to rowniez udzielac Europejczykom. Widze, Mily, ze dostajesz wypiekow na twarzy, gdy gielda idzie troche do gory.

Wyciszam tylko w ten sposob Komentatora, vel Commie. Moj jedyny kontakt z gielda, to mala zreszta czesc retirement plan, ulokowana w akcjach Dla mnie akurat wrecz im gorzej tym lepiej. Rynek, akcje i caly ten szum nie zadnego wplywu na ilosc pieniedzy, ktore zarabiam. Ma natomiast na ceny, np. Niemniej, niech DOW dobija 20 , a Nasdaq 10 Na pohybel Komentatorowi, i dlatego, bym nie musial ogladac naokolo coraz smutniejszych gab.

Moge na ulice wybiec bez portek tylko wtedy, gdy mnie ktos w pokera ogra Czarna dziura pisany byl przed ogloszeniem wynikow za 4 kw dlatego jest taki teoretyczny. Niektorzy wola swoje wiadomosci o rzeczywistosci pobierac wlasnie z artykulow takich jak "Czarna Dziura" albo z filmow fabularnych tym bardziej czeskich. Popyt i rynek na tego rodzaju "wiedze" istnieje od dawna i ja osobiscie nie mam nic przeciw komukolwiek w taki sposob czerpiacego swoja "wiedze".

Ostatecznie rynek ten jest potezny i napewno przyczynia sie do zmniejszenia bezrobocia dajac powazne dochody dla calych galezi ekonomii. Czasami lubie poczytac sobie nawet szmatlawce i poogladac jakies filmy rozrywkowe ale wylacznie dla rozrywki. Co do rzeczywistosci to wole zajmowac sie nia taka jaka ona jest. Ciekawe jaki bedzie deficyt handlowy USA za To jest total virtual reality. Szczegolnie przerazona ta sytuacja powinna byc Polska, sprzedajaca USAogromne ilosci produktow zaawansowanej technologii i uslug wszelkiego typu.

A w zamian dostajaca papier, a raczej powiekszajace sie liczby na kontach. Tutaj nigdy nie ma problemu i nikt nie zmusza zadnej firmy do sprzedawania czegokolwiek do firm amerykanskich ale jezeli jakakolwiek firma polska ma taki problem to moze natychmiast zamknac firme, zwolnic pracownikow etc.

I mimo ze ma dlugi, te rezerwy gdzies trzyma. Mam uzasadnione podejrzenie, ze w papierach amerykanskich. A skad je ma? Nie z eksportu high-tech prawda. Ale sie ucilalo w ciagu 90 lat np. Tutaj nigdy nie bylo wielkiego problemu szczegolnie teraz w epoce internetu kiedy pieniadze te elektronicznie bardzo szybko trafiaja na konta w USA.

Jak wykazuja inwestygacyjne dochodzenia np. W skali calego stanu czy kraju sumy sa po prostu zbyt wielkie nawet do kontemplacji. Jest wiele przyczyn tej sytuacji ale glownie rozchodzi sie o bezpieczenstwo pieniedzy i tak dlugo jak kraje poza USA nie usprawnia bankowosci i nie zapewnia wyzszego bezpieczenstwa tak dlugo ta sytuacja bedzie istniec.

Pozatym transakcje w dolarach sa inherentnie tansze i prowizje etc. Tu sie zasadniczo mylisz: Obecna potega dolara i jego przewartosciowianie jest po prostu wynikiem slepej wiary rynkow.

Pytanie jakd dlugo moze trwac wiara rynkow i ladowanie dolarow w materace w sytuacji gdy ekonomie USA subsydiuje sie na poziomie pol tryliona dolarow rocznie.

Chyba w jakims momencie musi sie to skonczyc??? No wiec ,zebys nie zapomnial komentator: Nie jestem ekonomista wiec posluze sie przykladem. Jak wiemy USA jest uzalezniona od importu surowcow. Od wielu lat wystepuje trend przenoszenia produkcji przez firmy amerykanskie do innych krajow gdzie sila robocza jest niezwykle tania.

A cena tego produktu w sklepach amerykanskich wcale nie jest nizsza od wyprodukowanego na miejscu w kraju. Wszystko to pomnozone prez dziesiatki tysiecy zatrudnionych daje firmie powazne oszczednosci. Ten zysk napewno jest transferowany na konto firmy w Ameryce jesli tam jest jej centrala. Nastepnie ta sama firma "Nike" ktorej wyroby sa sprzedawane po calym swiecie, nie bedzie przywozic do Ameryki swych wyrobow a nastepnie exportowac.

Exportuje go z kraju gdzie produkuje i mimo ze w statystyce tego kraju istnieje, faktycznie to jest export firmy Amerykanskiej. Misiaczku, od Bretton Woods minelo juz 58 lat. Status dolara jako waluty swiatowej nie wynika z sily amerykanskiej gospodarki. Po roku USA staraly sie utrzymac ten status wykorzystujac wszelkie dostepne srodki nacisku politycznego. Im szybciej ten szkodliwy monopol sie skonczy, tym lepiej.





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